# IPv6 Exhaustion Counter Calculation

## Rate of Consumption

I took Google's IPv6 Traffic Chart and drew a line projecting current growth, connecting these two points:

(Zero on April 1, 2011) and (1% on Jan 1, 2013)

(Click image for full-size)

The current rate of growth is about 1% of the Internet in 1.75 years.

There are about 8 billion devices on the Internet now.

Ignoring all other information & corrections, I just multiplied those numbers together to make a really crude & inaccurate estimate of IPv6 growth:

1% of 8 billion in 1.75 yrs = 80 million per 1.75 yrs = 45 million per year

1 year has 31.5 million seconds.

So the current address consumption rate is approximately 2 per second (rounded up from 1.5 per second to make a conservative estimate).

## Projected Exhaustion Date

The addresses will all be gone on this date:

1 year = 31536000 seconds

2^127 seconds = 1.7014118 x 10^38 seconds = 170141180 x 10^30 seconds

= ( 170141180 / 31536000 ) x 10^30 years

= 5.395 x 10^30 years

# Another Calculation

I got this message on Twitter shortly after posting the counter:
@paulgear1: @tbourke @ecbanks @sambowne The number of IPv6 addresses is irrelevant; the number of /64s is what's significant. How does that counter go?
That is a very good point! The current system allocates a block of addresses to each company, and the addresses within the company are expected to remain sparse forever, wasting a vast amount of space.

Not all companies get the same size blocks, either. Originally each company was supposed to get a /48, but now some companies get smaller blocks like /56 or even smaller, and some get larger blocks.

Here's some data from Wikipedia:

I drew a line projecting current growth, connecting these two points:

(Zero on Jan 1, 2010) and (12,000 on Jan 1, 2013)
So prefixes are being allocated at a rate of 12,000 in 3 years = 4000 per year

So the projected exhaustion date depends on how large those prefixes are.

Here's a chart showing my estimates of the lower and higher bound of reasonable prefix estimates.

```Prefix Size Number of Prefixes Exhaustion Date ----------- ----------------------- ------------------------ /32 4.295 billion 1,076,000 AD /48 281,500 billion 70,370,000,000 AD /64 18,450,000,000 billion 4,611,000,000,000,000 AD ```
So the appropriate counter for the /48 scenario is:

4000 /48 prefixes allocated per year =
4000 / (3.15 x 10^7) prefixes per second = 1.3 x 10-4 prefixes per second

Rounded up: 0.0002 prefixes per second