There are only this many IPv6 addresses left:


Projected IPv6 Exhaustion Date

9,000,000 AD

2016 Update

My original projection was based on data up to 2013, when the burn rate was 2 addresses per second. I used a straight-line projection, as shown below.

However, on Jan 8, 2016, @Joydisee pointed out to me that it was time to update my projection:

Indeed, Google's data does show an increase in the burn rate to 8 addresses per second:

I fit that with a simple power law:

Here's the projection far into the future:

Here's the detail showing the projected IPv6 exhaustion date:


In 2013, my predicted date for IPv6 exhaustion was:

5,395,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 AD
Now, three years later, I have refined my predicted date to:

                                9,000,000 AD
SOME people might regard this somewhat sizeable alteration as evidence that I am a complete idiot, making up meaningless nonsense. To them, I say, PSHAW, this is SCIENCE. Don't take such a negative attitude; get more fiber in your diet.

I, personally, am encouraged, and I say with confidence,

My prediction is more accurate than it was before!
So put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Also, some people may notice that my 2013 counter shows more addresses exausted right now than my 2016 counter. That's because my 2013 calculation assumed a total Internet size of 8 billion, but the new one uses an estimate of 3 billion, based on this source.

Posted 1-9-16 by Sam Bowne