- A Web browser

If you see a blue "Sign In" button at the top right, click it and log into a Google account.https://colab.research.google.com/

From the menu, click **File**, "**New notebook**".

As shown below, the data consists of two classes which cannot be separated by a simple line.

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from sklearn.datasets import make_moons from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split X, y = make_moons(n_samples=500, noise=0.30, random_state=42) X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, random_state=42) def plot_dataset(X, y, axes): plt.plot(X[:, 0][y==0], X[:, 1][y==0], "bs") plt.plot(X[:, 0][y==1], X[:, 1][y==1], "g^") plt.axis(axes) plt.grid(True, which='both') plt.xlabel(r"$x_1$", fontsize=20) plt.ylabel(r"$x_2$", fontsize=20, rotation=0) plot_dataset(X, y, [-1.5, 2.5, -1, 1.5]) plt.show()

- Logistic Regression
- SVM
- Random forest

As shown below, the three predictors have accuracies from 86% to 89%, but the overall voting classifier has an accuracy of 91%.

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, VotingClassifier from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression from sklearn.svm import SVC voting_clf = VotingClassifier( estimators=[ ('lr', LogisticRegression(random_state=42)), ('rf', RandomForestClassifier(random_state=42)), ('svc', SVC(random_state=42)) ] ) voting_clf.fit(X_train, y_train) VotingClassifier(estimators=[('lr', LogisticRegression(random_state=42)), ('rf', RandomForestClassifier(random_state=42)), ('svc', SVC(random_state=42))]) for name, clf in voting_clf.named_estimators_.items(): print(name, "=", clf.score(X_test, y_test)) print("Voting Classifier", voting_clf.score(X_test, y_test))

In *soft voting*, each predictor outputs
a probability, and those probabilities are averaged.
This makes use of more information from each predictor,
and should therefore be more accurate.

To implement soft voting, execute these commands:

As shown below, the soft voting classifier has an accuracy of 92%.

voting_clf.voting = "soft" voting_clf.named_estimators["svc"].probability = True voting_clf.fit(X_train, y_train) print("Soft Voting Classifier", voting_clf.score(X_test, y_test))

As shown below, a single decision tree overfits the data (on the left side), but the Bagging ensemble of 500 decision trees classifies the data well, with much less overfitting, but with an accuracy on the test set over 90%.

from sklearn.ensemble import BaggingClassifier from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score import numpy as np bag_clf = BaggingClassifier(DecisionTreeClassifier(), n_estimators=500, max_samples=100, n_jobs=-1, random_state=42) bag_clf.fit(X_train, y_train) BaggingClassifier(base_estimator=DecisionTreeClassifier(), max_samples=100, n_estimators=500, n_jobs=-1, random_state=42) def plot_decision_boundary(clf, X, y, alpha=1.0): axes=[-1.5, 2.4, -1, 1.5] x1, x2 = np.meshgrid(np.linspace(axes[0], axes[1], 100), np.linspace(axes[2], axes[3], 100)) X_new = np.c_[x1.ravel(), x2.ravel()] y_pred = clf.predict(X_new).reshape(x1.shape) plt.contourf(x1, x2, y_pred, alpha=0.3 * alpha, cmap='Wistia') plt.contour(x1, x2, y_pred, cmap="Greys", alpha=0.8 * alpha) colors = ["#78785c", "#c47b27"] markers = ("o", "^") for idx in (0, 1): plt.plot(X[:, 0][y == idx], X[:, 1][y == idx], color=colors[idx], marker=markers[idx], linestyle="none") plt.axis(axes) plt.xlabel(r"$x_1$") plt.ylabel(r"$x_2$", rotation=0) tree_clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=42) tree_clf.fit(X_train, y_train) fig, axes = plt.subplots(ncols=2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True) plt.sca(axes[0]) plot_decision_boundary(tree_clf, X_train, y_train) plt.title("Decision Tree") plt.sca(axes[1]) plot_decision_boundary(bag_clf, X_train, y_train) plt.title("Decision Trees with Bagging") plt.ylabel("") plt.show() y_pred = bag_clf.predict(X_test) print() print("Bagging classifier accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred))

## Flag ML 114.1: 5 Trees (5 pts)

Repeat the process above, but changen_estimatorsin the most recent block of code from 500 to 5 both places it appears. The model has more overfitting, as shown below.The flag is the accuracy of the prediction, covered by a green rectangle in the image below.

The algorithm increases the weight of instances that were incorrectly predicted by the previous predictor, as shown below.

Execute these commands to perform 5 iterations of AdaBoost using a jighly regularized SVM classifier with an RBF kernel:As shown below, the plot on the left has too high a learning_rate, so it jerks back and forth past the correct boundary, ending up with only 67% accuracy

m = len(X_train) accuracy = [0,0] fig, axes = plt.subplots(ncols=2, figsize=(10, 4), sharey=True) for subplot, learning_rate in ((0, 1), (1, 0.5)): sample_weights = np.ones(m) / m plt.sca(axes[subplot]) for i in range(5): svm_clf = SVC(C=0.2, gamma=0.6, random_state=42) svm_clf.fit(X_train, y_train, sample_weight=sample_weights * m) y_pred = svm_clf.predict(X_train) error_weights = sample_weights[y_pred != y_train].sum() r = error_weights / sample_weights.sum() # equation 7-1 alpha = learning_rate * np.log((1 - r) / r) # equation 7-2 sample_weights[y_pred != y_train] *= np.exp(alpha) # equation 7-3 sample_weights /= sample_weights.sum() # normalization step plot_decision_boundary(svm_clf, X_train, y_train, alpha=0.4) plt.title(f"learning_rate = {learning_rate}") if subplot == 0: plt.text(-0.75, -0.95, "1", fontsize=16) plt.text(-1.05, -0.95, "2", fontsize=16) plt.text(1.0, -0.95, "3", fontsize=16) plt.text(-1.45, -0.5, "4", fontsize=16) plt.text(1.36, -0.95, "5", fontsize=16) else: plt.ylabel("") accuracy[subplot] = svm_clf.score(X_test, y_test) plt.show() print() print(accuracy)

The plot on the right shows the result with a slower learning rate--converging on a better solution--87% accuracy.

## Flag ML 114.2: Ten Cycles (10 pts)

Repeat the process above, but changelearning_ratefrom 0.5 to 0.2, and run it for 10 iterations, not 5. (I removed the boundaries from the right plot, showing only the last one, but you don't need to do that to get the flag.)The flag is covered by a green rectangle in the image below.

Posted 10-1-23

Video added 10-21-23